Insight Image

A TRENDS study warns that terrorist attacks on undersea cables could lead to economic chaos and global military tensions

16 Aug 2024

A TRENDS study warns that terrorist attacks on undersea cables could lead to economic chaos and global military tensions

16 Aug 2024

A recent study that was published by TRENDS Research and Advisory examines the imminent shift from diminishing land-based terrorist activities to the emerging threat of terrorism that begins on the surface and extends into the depths of the oceans. The study also aims to explore potential terrorist threats to digital seafloor maps and their economic, social, and even political implications. Titled “Terrorism from Below: The Threat to Digital Seafloor Maps”, and authored by Dr. Elsayed Ali AbouFarha, an expert in the Strategic Studies Section, and Hamad Al-Hosani, a researcher at the Political Islam Section at TRENDS, the study argues that an internet outage could pose a serious threat to the security and stability of the digital world. Among the potential scenarios for an internet outage is the cutting of undersea cables by terrorist organizations in the future. The study asserts that terrorist attacks on undersea cables could lead to a complete halt in digital services on a global scale, causing massive economic and social chaos. This could result in disruptions to banks, businesses, and government institutions, as well as interruptions to online medical and educational services. The study also highlights that an internet outage could escalate political and military tensions between countries, especially if repeated cable-cutting incidents occur on a wide scale and are deliberate. Such events could provoke military responses, increasing the likelihood of conflicts and international disputes. According to the study, the global network of undersea cables includes approximately 552 cables that transmit 95% of the world’s internet data and over $10 trillion in financial transactions daily. These cables are crucial for the functioning of the global economy and diplomatic and military communications, forming what the study refers to as the digital seafloor map—the infrastructure underlying the modern global economy. The study cites an incident in March 2024, where undersea cables in the Red Sea were cut, affecting 25% of the data flow between Asia and Europe. This incident occurred amidst Houthi terrorist activities against international navigation in the Red Sea, prompting the formation of investigative committees to determine whether the event was intentional or accidental, and its potential connection to Houthi terrorism, despite the group’s lack of responsibility. The study points out that the Houthis possess the capabilities to disrupt, cut and sabotage undersea cables in the Bab al-Mandab area, which hosts 18 of the world’s most significant and longest cables. The study emphasizes that such sabotage does not require advanced capabilities and can be carried out using primitive means or by individual divers. However, the pressing question remains: How will the international community respond if such incidents recur, and to what extent can the Houthis withstand international backlash due to the potential catastrophic losses from these terrorist operations?